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Skip to Content Japanese English Chinese About RIETI Site Map Help Contact Discussion Papers Search Site Search Menu Research Areas Research Programs (FY2024-2028) Research Programs (FY2020-2023) Research Programs (FY2016-2019) Research Programs (FY2011-2015) Policy Research Domains (FY2006-2010) Projects Survey Fellows According to Title Alphabetical order RIETI Alumni Research/Policy Papers Discussion Papers (English) Discussion Papers (Japanese) Policy Discussion Papers (English) Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese) Technical Papers (English) Technical Papers (Japanese) Non Technical Summaries List of Articles in Journals Research Digest Discussion Papers Search Publications RIETI Books (English) RIETI Books (Japanese) History of Japan's Trade and Industry Policy Authors' Words Other Publications (English) Other Publications (Japanese) Events Symposiums Workshops BBL Seminars Archived Seminar Series Data JIP Database R-JIP Database CIP Database Industry-Specific Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates AMU and AMU Deviation Indicators JSTAR RIETI-TID RIETI FDI Database ICPA Project Links Articles Column Special Series Newspapers & Magazines Fellows' Works VoxEU Column From IZA Perspectives from Around the World Other Contents RIETI Report Policy Update Keizai Sangyo Journal (METI Journal) Research Areas Fellows Research/Policy Papers Publications Events Data Articles Site Map Technical Issues Coontact Discussion Papers Search Close HomeArticlesSpecial SeriesPriorities for the Japanese Economy in 2016 (January 2016) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2016 (January 2016) The Global Economy is Counting on the Knowledge and Support of Developed Countries and Japan Tweet Print NAKAJIMA Atsushi Chairman, RIETI Continued stagnation of the global economy and political and social disorderThe global economy from the 1990s onwards has enjoyed a period in which the world as a whole became more affluent as emerging countries achieved high growth driven by the rapid growth of the Chinese economy and high oil and resource prices. However, the situation reversed last year, and since then, major changes have come to the forefront. The emerging economies, particularly those of resource-rich countries, currently face difficulties, with the middle and low income countries in the Middle East and North Africa suffering particularly harsh conditions (Figure).Figure: GDP per Capita Growth in World Major AreasNote: Trend based on PPPSource: World Bank The stagnation of the global economy, especially in emerging economies, will lead to political and social disorder. While there are already many refugees and immigrants in the Middle East and North Africa, it seems that the forecasted state of the global economy in the immediate future will make it difficult to resolve regional conflicts.Increased social and political disorder around the world must be avoided. One of the most obvious ways to do this is to bring about the recovery of the global economy and lay the seeds for its structural growth. Knowledge and support expected from developed countriesThere are various ways to boost the growth rate of the global economy. In the current phase, however, major developed countries should drive the global economy as they have done in the past, given that many of the countries lacking the resources that benefit from low oil and resource prices are developed countries which also enjoy low interest rates.One of the ways to drive the global economy that fits the needs of developed countries is to accelerate innovation. Coupled with the network society formed through the Internet, technological innovation in hardware and software are making it possible to collect big data and conduct advanced analysis such as deep learning. As a result, developed countries will soon enter the stage in which artificial intelligence (AI) dramatically transforms the economy, industry, and society.The overall progression of the aging population and maturation of the economic society in major developed countries can also become driving forces in supporting the global economy because these factors can give rise to new social changes. Although it will take time for these changes to become evident, they need to be carried out in a manner that brings even more affluence to people by correcting various imbalances in society through a comprehensive review of the social security system, tax system, regulations, and the norms and recognition of society and people. Correcting imbalances can also help to utilize human resources, physical assets, and capital more efficiently than in the past to achieve better economic growth. One actual case in which these endeavors can be seen is the welfare state of Sweden. Sweden has introduced a socioeconomic model for enhancing social security while at the same time achieving favorable growth. To maintain the world's highest level of welfare, it asks companies and people to deliver a high level of performance and shoulder a large burden within a market as competitive as that of the United States.Another means for promoting growth within the global economy is for developed countries to take the initiative in lowering economic borders between countries. The European Union (EU) has eliminated economic borders across a wide area. The elimination of non-tariff barriers and the formation of a single market can be largely traced to the EU's acute awareness of the need to revitalize its economy in order to restore Europe's economic competitiveness which had declined more significantly than that of Japan and the United States during the 1980s.One other example of lowering economic borders can also be seen in mega free trade agreements (FTAs). The most significant of these is the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), in which the member countries make up 11% of the world population and 36% of the global economy. In addition, the TPP is expected to exert a strong revitalizing effect on the economy by not only eliminating non-tariff barriers to the trade of goods, but also barriers in many other areas. The TPP's involvement of both emerging countries and developed countries including the United States and Japan also gives a positive effect on economic growth. Japan holds a good positionFortunately, Japan holds a good position in many respects. First of all, Japan is a country that lacks resources, making it one of the greatest beneficiaries of the structural changes occurring in the global economy. In fact, the prices of imported oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from January to November 2015 declined by nearly 7.1 trillion yen from the same period of the previous year, helping corporate earnings to hit a record high and reduce household expenditure on energy-related consumption. In addition, Japan is currently building a new socioeconomic model that will contribute to its economic vitality as well as in other countries. There is an urgent need for women and the elderly to play an active role in a society where the population is aging most rapidly in the world. This task will be completed by making comprehensive and innovative changes across a broad area ranging from regulations, the labor market, and the corporate system to social norms.When the TPP comes into effect, the Japanese economy will be further globalized. In particular, the effect of revitalizing the economy and the benefits to households brought by globalization will be significant because the ratios of trade and foreign direct investment in Japan to GDP are behind those of other countries. In light of the structural changes in the global economy, innovations and changes in the socioeconomic model unique to a developed country are extremely important. In this environment, the issues Japan needs to solve, such as the low birth rate and aging population, are quite clear. Japan is blessed with great economic conditions, enabling it to steadily address the problems it faces and contribute to the world.January 6, 2016>> Original text in Japanese Tweet January 15, 2016 Print Article(s) by this author Business Investment and Wage Growth are the Keys to Overcoming Inflation and Fiscal Balance Deterioration October 3, 2022［Column］ Make the Consumption Tax Hike an Opportunity to Steadily Raise the Wage Level August 29, 2019［RIETI Report］ Make the Consumption Tax Hike an Opportunity to Steadily Raise the Wage Level August 28, 2019［Policy Update］ Blockchain and Society 5.0-The Creation of a New Marketplace based on Distributed Consensus January 30, 2019［RIETI Report］ Signs that Japan’s Deflationary Mindset May Finally be Lifting? June 6, 2018［Policy Update］ Articles Column Special Series Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2024 (January 2024) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2023 (January 2023) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2022 (January 2022) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2021 (January 2021) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2020 (January 2020) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2019 (January 2019) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2018 (January 2018) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2017 (January 2017) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2016 (January 2016) Fellows' Views on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2015 (January 2015) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2014 (December 2013) Issues Facing the Japanese Economy in 2013 (January 2013) Issues Facing the Japanese Economy in 2012 (January 2012) Issues Facing the Japanese Economy in 2009 (January 2009) Issues Facing the Japanese Economy in 2008 (January 2008) Issues Facing the Japanese Economy in 2007 (January 2007) RIETI Fellows' View on Incident at Japanese Consulate-General in Shenyang (June 2002) Newspapers & Magazines Fellows' Works VoxEU Column From IZA Perspectives from Around the World Other Contents RIETI Report Policy Update Keizai Sangyo Journal Communications Newsletter RSS Feed Facebook X YouTube Research Areas Research Programs (FY2024-2028) Research Programs (FY2020-2023) Research Programs (FY2016-2019) Research Programs (FY2011-2015) Policy Research Domains (FY2006-2010) Projects Survey Fellows Research/Policy Papers Discussion Papers (English) Discussion Papers (Japanese) Policy Discussion Papers (English) Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese) Technical Papers (English) Technical Papers (Japanese) Non Technical Summaries List of Articles in Journals Research Digest Discussion Papers Search Publications RIETI Books (English) RIETI Books (Japanese) History of Japan's Trade and Industry Policy Authors' Words Other Publications (English) Other Publications (Japanese) Events Symposiums Workshops BBL Seminars Archived Seminar Series Data JIP Database R-JIP Database CIP Database Industry-Specific Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates AMU and AMU Deviation Indicators JSTAR RIETI-TID RIETI FDI Database ICPA Project Links Articles Column Special Series Newspapers & Magazines Fellows' Works VoxEU Column From IZA Perspectives from Around the World Other Contents RIETI Report Policy Update Keizai Sangyo Journal (METI Journal) About RIETI Privacy Policy Site Policy Site Map Help Contact METI Web Site Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, IAA (JCN 6010005005426)JCN: Japan Corporate Number Opinions expressed or implied on this website are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).Titles, numbers, specific names, etc. on this website are as of the date of publication. 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