BeeBet(ビーベット)とは？評判やボーナス、登録方法などを ...

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In the past two years, Japan and the rest of the world have remained plagued with the spread of COVID-19. In September 2021, the Japanese government launched the Digital Agency, reflecting on its failure to pay a 100,000-yen cash stipend to all citizens quickly and smoothly under its first state of emergency declaration amid the initial wave of COVID-19. This represented one of the domains in which the COVID-19 crisis triggered some reform. Regrettably, however, in the past two years the recognition of essential challenges such as population decline and fiscal and social security reform that have existed since before the crisis has weakened among citizens. This might have been inevitable as indicated by a theory of motivation known as Maslow's hierarchy of needs. According to the theory, people have a pyramid hierarchy of five categories of human needs—physiological needs, safety needs, love and belonging needs, esteem needs and self-actualization needs—that they prioritize from bottom to top. Unless lower needs are satisfied, people remain unmotivated to satisfy needs that are higher on the pyramid. Needs in lower positions of the pyramid are physiological and safety needs. As COVID-19 has threatened the safety of human lives, people have stayed unmotivated to deepen talks on population decline and fiscal and social security reform as medium to long-term challenges. Furthermore, concern has recently grown globally over the new Omicron COVID-19 variant that was first reported in South Africa. A sixth wave of COVID-19 infections could hit Japan as well. However, the progress in COVID-19 vaccination and drug development apparently signals the end of the pandemic. Shock of a 12-million-person decline in productive population The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications published the final results of Japan's 2020 population census on November 30, 2021. The most shocking item among the results was a rapid decline in the productive population aged between 15 and 64. Population census data indicate that the productive population peaked at about 87.16 million in 1995 and declined to about 75.08 million in 2020. In the 25 years between 1995 and 2020, Japan's productive population decreased by as many as 12 million people. However, this is nothing more than the beginning of the year 2040 problem. Regarding population, the Japanese economy is actually facing three problems: the year 2025 problem, the year 2040 problem and the year 2054 problem. What are these three problems? As is well known, the year 2025 problem means that baby-boomers will turn 75 by 2025, increasing upside pressure further on healthcare and nursing care expenses. According to Population Projections for Japan (2017, medium-fertility and medium-mortality assumptions) by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, the population aged 75 or older will stand at 21.8 million in 2025, accounting for 17.8% of Japan's total population at 122.54 million. Figure: Projections of Population Aged 75 or Older and Productive Population (aged between 20 and 64) Source: Prepared by the author from Population Projections for Japan (2017, medium-fertility and medium-mortality assumptions) by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research The Year 2040 and Year 2054 problems What is the year 2040 problem? This problem is that the working population (aged between 20 and 64) will decrease by as much as 10 million in only 15 years between 2025 and 2040. The above-cited population projections indicate that the working population (aged between 20 and 64) will decrease from 66.34 million in 2025 to 55.42 million in 2040. The annual average decline works out at about 0.73 million, even faster than the average drop of 0.48 million in the productive population between 1995 and 2020. This projection indicates that the Japanese economy could face serious labor shortages unless Japan proactively accepts immigrants. An even more serious problem is that while the productive population rapidly declines, the population aged 75 or older (though decelerating growth temporarily in the 2030s) will continue increasing until 2054. I call this tentatively the "Year 2054 problem." According to the above-cited population projections, the population aged 75 or older will reach 24.49 million, amounting to about 25% of the total population. This means that one out of every four persons will be aged 75 or older. Japan will thus become an ultra-super-aging society, which will be unprecedented in human history. How would the fiscal and social security pictures look then? Given the limits on the tax and premium payment capacity of the working population (aged between 20 and 64), the definition of elderly, which is often those aged 65 or older at present could be changed to those aged 75 or older. At a time when the end of the COVID-19 pandemic is signaled, the time might have come for us to consider how to address the three population problems (the year 2025, 2040 and 2054 problems), including how to reform fiscal and social security systems, on which talks have been stalled under the pandemic. As the new year 2022 has begun, there are only three years left for addressing the year 2025 problem. It may be too late to address this problem, but this will be followed by the year 2040 and 2054 problems. Serious talks are required on how Japan should address the three problems as a global top runner in population decline and aging. December 22, 2021 >> Original text in Japanese Tweet January 13, 2022 Print Article(s) by this author Proposal for Establishment of an Independent Fiscal Institution and Importance of Ex-Post Review January 12, 2024［RIETI Report］ Proposal for Establishment of an Independent Fiscal Institution and Importance of Ex-Post Review January 5, 2024［Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2024 (January 2024)］ Balancing Promotion of the Pharmaceutical Industry & Sustainable Health Insurance Finance July 15, 2022［Newspapers & Magazines］ Addressing the Year2040 and Year 2054 Problems January 13, 2022［Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2022 (January 2022)］ Demographic Changes & the Design of Public Finances & Social Security Structures November 16, 2021［Newspapers & Magazines］ Articles Column Special Series Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2024 (January 2024) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2023 (January 2023) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2022 (January 2022) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2021 (January 2021) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2020 (January 2020) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2019 (January 2019) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2018 (January 2018) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2017 (January 2017) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2016 (January 2016) Fellows' Views on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2015 (January 2015) Priorities for the Japanese Economy in 2014 (December 2013) Issues Facing the Japanese Economy in 2013 (January 2013) Issues Facing the Japanese Economy in 2012 (January 2012) Issues Facing the Japanese Economy in 2009 (January 2009) Issues Facing the Japanese Economy in 2008 (January 2008) Issues Facing the Japanese Economy in 2007 (January 2007) RIETI Fellows' View on Incident at Japanese Consulate-General in Shenyang (June 2002) Newspapers & Magazines Fellows' Works VoxEU Column From IZA Perspectives from Around the World Other Contents RIETI Report Policy Update Keizai Sangyo Journal Communications Newsletter RSS Feed Facebook X YouTube Research Areas Research Programs (FY2024-2028) Research Programs (FY2020-2023) Research Programs (FY2016-2019) Research Programs (FY2011-2015) Policy Research Domains (FY2006-2010) Projects Survey Fellows Research/Policy Papers Discussion Papers (English) Discussion Papers (Japanese) Policy Discussion Papers (English) Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese) Technical Papers (English) Technical Papers (Japanese) Non Technical Summaries List of Articles in Journals Research Digest Discussion Papers Search Publications RIETI Books (English) RIETI Books (Japanese) History of Japan's Trade and Industry Policy Authors' Words Other Publications (English) Other Publications (Japanese) Events Symposiums Workshops BBL Seminars Archived Seminar Series Data JIP Database R-JIP Database CIP Database Industry-Specific Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates AMU and AMU Deviation Indicators JSTAR RIETI-TID RIETI FDI Database ICPA Project Links Articles Column Special Series Newspapers & Magazines Fellows' Works VoxEU Column From IZA Perspectives from Around the World Other Contents RIETI Report Policy Update Keizai Sangyo Journal (METI Journal) About RIETI Privacy Policy Site Policy Site Map Help Contact METI Web Site Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, IAA (JCN 6010005005426)JCN: Japan Corporate Number Opinions expressed or implied on this website are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).Titles, numbers, specific names, etc. on this website are as of the date of publication. 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